Q4 earnings “officially” beat low expectations, but the market already knew that

Fourth-quarter expectations were low in the fall of 2022, as headlines around inflation, interest rates, and consumer outlook dominated financial media during the summer and fall.

The stock market didn’t wait for the winter to get worse- stocks made lows in October of ‘22 in anticipation of a rough quarter ahead.

Fast forward to February of 23, and the results are in: In Q4 2022, 68% of S&P 500 index constituents surpassed earnings and profitability expectations:

Blink and you missed it- the S&P 500 is up 7% YTD and nearly 15% since October 1, 2022. As usual, stock prices arrived before the data did.