New Day Same Bull: after 20% rise we can finally admit it’s “Bull Market”

The S&P 500 is now up 20% from its October 12 low, which means you’ll be seeing headlines like this this week:

I’ve got a problem with this. Technically, it’s correct- we don’t declare bulls and bears until the index has already moved 20%.

The market has, in hindsight been in bull mode since October.

Investors who buy today on these headlines probably wouldn’t realize they’ve missed the first 20% gain in the index.

The paradox is that, to enjoy the 20% gain, you would have needed to invest during a bear market (S&P 500 had dropped roughly 25% by Oct 12).

I hope there’s more to this Bull market (and history says there is)- see the American Funds historical chart below.

But 2022 is an important reminder of why it’s best to stay invested during bear markets: by the time people declare a new Bull, money has been made.